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CapWatch:
November Forecast and Election Update

CapWatch - Larkin Hoffman Public Affairs

Minnesota Management and Budget Releases November Forecast

This morning Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) released the November budget forecast, detailing the projected changes to the state’s budget since the end of the 2024 legislative session. This yearly forecast is released leading up to the legislative session and then an additional forecast is released in February to assist in the crafting of a biennial budget. The November forecast released today shows a projected $616 million surplus for Fiscal Year (FY) 26-27.  This is $1.1 billion less than prior estimates. MMB noted reductions in income and sales tax revenues as well as higher spending on long term care and special education as causes for the decrease.

MMB projections also showed a structural imbalance in the subsequent biennium with a projected budget deficit of $5.1 billion by the end of FY 28-29. Inflation plays a role in that, but spending is projected to exceed future revenue by $3.5 billion. The structural imbalance is cause for concern for lawmakers, as projected spending will continue to exceed future revenue projections without a budget solution. Additional details related to the forecast can be found here: https://mn.gov/mmb/mmbhome/?id=657981

Election Lawsuits Filed

In the weeks since the 2024 general election, two separate lawsuits have been filed contesting results. A lawsuit challenging the election results in Minnesota House District 54A has been filed related to 20 missing ballots with the winning margin only being 14 votes. Incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke (DFL-Shakopee) was declared the winner over challenger Aaron Paul. However, the missing 20 ballots that are not expected to be recovered prompted the GOP to file suit requesting an investigation into the matter. They are suing to request a special election after Rep. Tabke’s term ends in January.

The second lawsuit was filed by Republican candidate Paul Wikstrom who claims that the Democratic winner of the race, Curtis Johnson, does not live within the boundary of District 40B, but instead lives in Little Canada. Johnson said he has photo evidence showing that Wikstrom didn’t reside at the in-district rental he claimed was his address at the time of the election, but instead lived in his main residence outside the district. Wikstrom seeks to overturn the election certification and that a court order a new election.

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